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Observed Changes in the Climate Extremes over Tripura, Northeast India
Sailajadevi T. - ไม่ระบุหน่วยงาน
ชื่อเรื่อง (EN): Observed Changes in the Climate Extremes over Tripura, Northeast India
ผู้แต่ง / หัวหน้าโครงการ (EN): Sailajadevi T.
บทคัดย่อ (EN): Extreme climate events today pose a serious threat to many populated and urbanized areas worldwide. An accurate estimate of frequency and distribution of these events can significantly aid in policy planning. Extremes in the temperature are characterized by daily temperature levels exceeding the tolerable limits, and changes in their frequency, duration and amplitude. During the last two decades more attention has been given to study the extremes in daily temperatures and their variability. Objective of the study was to characterize the climate extremes in a nontraditional rubber growing area i.e. Agartala, Tripura (230 53’N, 91015’E). Climate extreme analysis was performed annually and seasonally for Agartala, West Tripura using the tools defined by the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices. Database (1984-2009) from the agrometeorological observatory, Agartala has been employed for analysis. Seasonal analysis showed that number of hot days (annual count of days with Tmax > 350C) increased (0.09 days/year) during SW monsoon. Number of days/nights exceeding the 90th percentile threshold was identified as warm days/warm nights and number of days/nights remaining less than 10th percentile was termed as cool days/nights. Increase in the number of warm days (0.3 days/year) was noticed during SW monsoon and winter followed by NE monsoon (0.2days/year). Annually number of warm days and cool days were increased at a rate of 0.6 and 0.5 days/year respectively. Increase in the number of very hot nights (Tmin > 250C) were observed at a rate of 1.8 days/year during SW monsoon and a positive trend was noticed during NE monsoon and summer. Number of cool nights (Tmin < 10th percentile) were declined during SW monsoon followed by NE monsoon. Upward trend in the number of warm nights was observed during SW monsoon followed by NE monsoon and winter. Number of cold spells (annual count of days with 4 consecutive days with daily Tmin < 10th percentile) declined over the years though not significantly. Number of days where Tmax exceeded the temperature thresholds defined as mean (31.90C), leaf equivalent temperature 330C and mean plus 1ó (33.80C) was increased at a rate of 0.80C, 0.60C and 0.50C respectively over the years during SW Monsoon.. Over a span of 25 years, number of warm spells (three continuous days with Tmax > 330C) increased at a rate of 0.16 spells per year. Analyzing the temperature regime, it was noticed that rate of warming was more pronounced in minimum temperature than maximum temperature. In general, minimum temperature in Agartala shows a higher rate of increase and higher coefficients of determination (r2) than maximum temperature. The reason for such a trend in minimum temperature can be attributed to the effect of suburban modification which is well manifested in minimum temperature than maximum temperature. The result is in agreement with earlier studies that reported that rates of change of temperature and r2 were higher for suburban stations compared to urban stations, an indication of the increasing urban sprawl. Precipitation extremes were assessed. According to climate extreme analysis, wet days, heavy precipitation days and very heavy precipitation days were defined as daily rainfall > 1mm, 10 mm and 30 mm, respectively. Number of wet days per years declined in all the seasons except NE monsoon. Number of heavy precipitation days did not decrease/increase in other seasons except during winter where a slight downward trend was noticed. Number of very high precipitation days did exhibit a positive trend only during SW monsoon. Simple daily intensity (annual total precipitation/ number of wet days) increased during summer (0.3mm/year) and SW monsoon (0.1mm/year). Maximum number of consecutive wet days declined and maximum number of consecutive dry days increased in Agartala, though not significantly. Rainy days during SW Monsoon declined at a rate of 0.4 days per year. Extreme rainfall events during the season increased at a rate of 0.15 days per year over a span of 25 years. It was observed that the lower limit of the upper extreme (10 %) values of Tmin were >25.5 0 C for summer, >26.2 0 C for SW monsoon >24.3 0 C for NE monsoon. The study identifies the temperature range at which the maximum warming occurs and also whether the warming has been confined to the upper extreme temperature only or whether it has its influence at the lower ranges too. Result indicates that frequency of occurrence of warm nights is increasing in Agartala than days which could be adverse for natural rubber yield in other seasons except winter. However, a wider meteorology database is essential to quantify the findings.
บทคัดย่อ: ไม่พบข้อมูลจากหน่วยงานต้นทาง
ภาษา (EN): en
เผยแพร่โดย (EN): การยางแห่งประเทศไทย
คำสำคัญ (EN): monsoon
เจ้าของลิขสิทธิ์ (EN): การยางแห่งประเทศไทย
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Observed Changes in the Climate Extremes over Tripura, Northeast India
Sailajadevi T.
การยางแห่งประเทศไทย
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