สืบค้นงานวิจัย
Time series modeling of pneumonia admissions and its association with air pollution and climate variables in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand
Ruchiraset A. - ไม่ระบุหน่วยงาน
ชื่อเรื่อง (EN): Time series modeling of pneumonia admissions and its association with air pollution and climate variables in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand
ผู้แต่ง / หัวหน้าโครงการ (EN): Ruchiraset A.
บทคัดย่อ (EN): This study aimed to predict the number of pneumonia cases in Chiang Mai Province. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used in data fitting and to predict future pneumonia cases monthly. Total pneumonia cases of 67,583 were recorded in Chiang Mai during 2003–2014 that the monthly pattern of case was similar every year. Monthly pneumonia cases were increased during February and September, which are the periods of winter and rainy season in Thailand and decreased during April to July (the period of summer season to early rainy season). Using available data on 12 years of pneumonia cases, air pollution, and climate in Chiang Mai, the optimum ARIMA model was investigated based on several conditions. Seasonal change was included in the models due to statistically strong season conditions. Twelve ARIMA model (ARMODEL1–ARMODEL12) scenarios were investigated. Results showed that the most appropriate model was ARIMA (1,0,2)(2,0,0)[12] with PM10 (ARMODEL5) exhibiting the lowest AIC of − 38.29. The predicted number of monthly pneumonia cases by using ARMODEL5 during January to March 2013 was 727, 707, and 658 cases, while the real number was 804, 868, and 783 cases, respectively. This finding indicated that PM10 held the most important role to predict monthly pneumonia cases in Chiang Mai, and the model was able to predict future pneumonia cases in Chiang Mai accurately. © 2018, The Author(s).
บทคัดย่อ: ไม่พบข้อมูลจากหน่วยงานต้นทาง
ภาษา (EN): en
เอกสารแนบ (EN): https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85053930067&doi=10.1007%2fs11356-018-3284-4&partnerID=40&md5=65732ce526db5ab0ea7071a7e1b925a6
เผยแพร่โดย (EN): มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
คำสำคัญ (EN): Thailand
เจ้าของลิขสิทธิ์ (EN): มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
หากไม่พบเอกสารฉบับเต็ม (Full Text) โปรดติดต่อหน่วยงานเจ้าของข้อมูล

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Ruchiraset A.. "Time series modeling of pneumonia admissions and its association with air pollution and climate variables in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand". ไม่ระบุหน่วยงาน. ม.ป.ป.

Ruchiraset A.. "Time series modeling of pneumonia admissions and its association with air pollution and climate variables in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand". ไม่ระบุหน่วยงาน. ม.ป.ป.. Print.



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Time series modeling of pneumonia admissions and its association with air pollution and climate variables in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand
Ruchiraset A.
มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
ไม่ระบุวันที่เผยแพร่
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พัฒนาระบบโดยศูนย์ความรู้เฉพาะด้านวิศวกรรมความรู้และวิศวกรรมภาษาDeveloped by Center of Excellence for Unified Knowledge and Language Engineering
สนับสนุนโดยสำนักงานพัฒนาการวิจัยการเกษตร (องค์การมหาชน)Supported by the Agricultural Research Development Agency (Public Organization)
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