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Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: An overview of mathematical modeling approaches
Wiratsudakul A. - ไม่ระบุหน่วยงาน
ชื่อเรื่อง (EN): Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: An overview of mathematical modeling approaches
ผู้แต่ง / หัวหน้าโครงการ (EN): Wiratsudakul A.
บทคัดย่อ (EN): . The Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It was neglected until a major outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia, in 2007. Teratogenic effects resulting in microcephaly in newborn infants is the greatest public health threat. In 2016, the Zika virus epidemic was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Consequently, mathematical models were constructed to explicitly elucidate related transmission dynamics. Survey Methodology. In this review article, two steps of journal article searching were performed. First, we attempted to identify mathematical models previously applied to the study of vector-borne diseases using the search terms "dynamics," "mathematical model," "modeling," and "vector-borne" together with the names of vector-borne diseases including chikungunya, dengue, malaria, West Nile, and Zika. Then the identified types of model were further investigated. Second, we narrowed down our survey to focus on only Zika virus research. The terms we searched for were "compartmental," "spatial," "metapopulation," "network," "individual-based," "agent-based" AND "Zika." All relevant studies were included regardless of the year of publication. We have collected research articles that were published before August 2017 based on our search criteria. In this publication survey, we explored the Google Scholar and PubMed databases. Results. We found five basic model architectures previously applied to vector-borne virus studies, particularly in Zika virus simulations. These include compartmental, spatial, metapopulation, network, and individual-based models. We found that Zika models carried out for early epidemics were mostly fit into compartmental structures and were less complicated compared to the more recent ones. Simple models are still commonly used for the timely assessment of epidemics. Nevertheless, due to the availability of large-scale real-world data and computational power, recently there has been growing interest in more complex modeling frameworks. Discussion. Mathematical models are employed to explore and predict how an infectious disease spreads in the real world, evaluate the disease importation risk, and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. As the trends in modeling of infectious diseases have been shifting towards data-driven approaches, simple and complex models should be exploited differently. Simple models can be produced in a timely fashion to provide an estimation of the possible impacts. In contrast, complex models integrating real-world data require more time to develop but are far more realistic. The preparation of complicated modeling frameworks prior to the outbreaks is recommended, including the case of future Zika epidemic preparation. © 2018 Wiratsudakul et al.
บทคัดย่อ: ไม่พบข้อมูลจากหน่วยงานต้นทาง
ภาษา (EN): en
เอกสารแนบ (EN): https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85044297072&doi=10.7717%2fpeerj.4526&partnerID=40&md5=4bee26a6c787e7b54f8c30eadfc0c97c
เผยแพร่โดย (EN): มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
คำสำคัญ (EN): Zika virus
เจ้าของลิขสิทธิ์ (EN): มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
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Wiratsudakul A.. "Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: An overview of mathematical modeling approaches". ไม่ระบุหน่วยงาน. ม.ป.ป.

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Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: An overview of mathematical modeling approaches
Wiratsudakul A.
มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
ไม่ระบุวันที่เผยแพร่
Biology of Zika virus infection in human skin cells Antibody response to Zika and Dengue virus among the Zika realtime PCR positive cases in Thailand, 2016 Long-term circulation of Zika virus in Thailand: an observational study Development of the cost and time saving Zika virus detection method by real time RT-PCR in response for 2016 outbreak in Thailand Zika virus infection modulates the metabolomic profile of microglial cells Monitoring arbovirus in Thailand: Surveillance of dengue, chikungunya and zika virus, with a focus on coinfections Modeling environmental impact of service sectors to promote sustainable development of Thailand Whole-genome sequence analysis of Zika virus isolated from the plasma of an infected patient in Thailand Development of Zika virus detection method by real time RT-PCR for using in Thailand Modeling Mercury Flows in Thailand on the Basis of Mathematical Material Flow Analysis
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