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Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach
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ชื่อเรื่อง (EN): Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach
ผู้แต่ง / หัวหน้าโครงการ (EN): Entwisle B.
บทคัดย่อ (EN): This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media New York.
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ภาษา (EN): en
เอกสารแนบ (EN): https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955277711&doi=10.1007%2fs11111-016-0254-y&partnerID=40&md5=5feb57f4148c8ebcddd0bd1c45246b7f
เผยแพร่โดย (EN): มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
คำสำคัญ (EN): Thailand
เจ้าของลิขสิทธิ์ (EN): มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
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Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach
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มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
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