สืบค้นงานวิจัย
Drought Indices to Identify Rainfall Anomalies in Rubber Growing Areas of Sri Lanka
Wasana Wijesuriya - ไม่ระบุหน่วยงาน
ชื่อเรื่อง (EN): Drought Indices to Identify Rainfall Anomalies in Rubber Growing Areas of Sri Lanka
ผู้แต่ง / หัวหน้าโครงการ (EN): Wasana Wijesuriya
บทคัดย่อ (EN): The potential uses of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in understanding rainfall and drought dynamics are illustrated in this paper to popularize their use in decision making approaches in rubber plantations. The paper compares SPI and SPEI in the Wet, Intermediate and Dry Zones of Sri Lanka, Further, analyses include identifying temporal trend in rainfall anomalies and spatial analysis and mapping employing Geographical Information Systems (GIS) tools. Monthly rainfall and temperature data covering the period 1983 to 2015 of selected locations were used for the analyses. Three stations each from Dry (Ampara, Iranamadu, Vavuniya), Intermediate (Badulla, Moneragala, Wellawaya) and Wet Zones (Galle, Ratnapura and Agalawatta) were selected for the study. The software provided by the National Drought Mitigation Centre was employed in generation of SPI and SPEI series. The results of simple linear regression between SPI and SPEI revealed that the intercepts (b0) varied from -0.002 to 0.009 and the regression coefficients (b1) varied from 0.942 to 0.964 for the Wet Zone. In the Intermediate Zone, b0 varied from -0.014 to 0.014 and b1 varied from 0.882 to 0.968. Values for b0 and b1 for the Dry Zone were in the range of -0.210 to 0.114 and 0.817 to 1.060, respectively. The agreement between the two indices is comparatively low in Intermediate Zone and Dry Zone, compared to the Wet Zone. Thus, SPI can be used instead of SPEI in the Wet Zone of Sri Lanka in quantifying rainfall anomalies. Yet, further studies are needed to compare the drought categories represented by SPI and SPEI values in the locations of dry and intermediate zones to quantify the rate of misclassifications before recommendation. No significant trends at 0.05 probability level were detected for the drought indices for the 6-months scale relevant to planting and subsequent immature period was considered. Hence, there is no risk of increased drought conditions in the rubber growing areas. However, the situation of the Ratnapura area with several drought conditions in the recent years needs to be considered to avoid any risks. Maps developed for drought indices can provide temporal and spatial outlooks on droughts in rubber growing areas and will be of immense importance in drawing plans for further expansion of rubber.
บทคัดย่อ: ไม่พบข้อมูลจากหน่วยงานต้นทาง
ภาษา (EN): en
เผยแพร่โดย (EN): การยางแห่งประเทศไทย
คำสำคัญ (EN): Rainfall anomalies
เจ้าของลิขสิทธิ์ (EN): การยางแห่งประเทศไทย
หากไม่พบเอกสารฉบับเต็ม (Full Text) โปรดติดต่อหน่วยงานเจ้าของข้อมูล

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